Bawler / Jordan vs Algeria / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Tuesday, 23 June 2026

Jordan 1–2 AlgeriaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 23 June 2026

Jordan
1–2
Algeria win
Algeria
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Jordan at 25%, draw at 35%, Algeria at 40%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Algeria.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Jordan win
25%
Draw
35%
Algeria win
40%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.97 – 1.27
Total 2.24
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.8 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 63%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 70% because Algeria's 1.27 xG plus Jordan's 0.97 creates enough attacking thrust, with Mahrez's creative pull (26% of team xG) the decisive edge."

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