What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 74%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Jagiellonia Bialystok are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than ARARAT-ARMENIA. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Jagiellonia Bialystok vs ARARAT-ARMENIA?
Bawler's model rates this match: Jagiellonia Bialystok are favoured (65% win probability vs 14% for ARARAT-ARMENIA, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs ARARAT-ARMENIA?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 ARARAT-ARMENIA (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.06.
How does Bawler predict Jagiellonia Bialystok vs ARARAT-ARMENIA?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Jagiellonia Bialystok 65%, the draw 21% and ARARAT-ARMENIA 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs ARARAT-ARMENIA?
BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.16 and away expected goals 0.91.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs ARARAT-ARMENIA?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.06. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).