What we expect
In plain English
Internazionale should win this one. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Parma, and Parma have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Internazionale to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Internazionale vs Parma?
Bawler's model rates this match: Internazionale are favoured (75% win probability vs 8% for Parma, 16% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Internazionale vs Parma?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Internazionale 2-0 Parma (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.15.
How does Bawler predict Internazionale vs Parma?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Internazionale 75%, the draw 16% and Parma 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Internazionale vs Parma?
BTTS: No (54% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.45 and away expected goals 0.70.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Internazionale vs Parma?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.15. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).