Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 01 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami CF vs Columbus Crew

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals at 78% confidence is the play here—Miami's 0.47 xG edge and Messi's creative dominance (35% of team output) makes a multi-goal affair the likeliest script.

📊 Win probability
45.5% home28.2% draw26.2% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Inter Miami CFstepColumbus Crew
1.60Base xG · rolling 26-match1.42
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.80Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.34

Inter Miami average 5.1 corners per game at home this season (29 competitive matches). Columbus Crew average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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6
0
4
6
4
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1
8
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7
3
1
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6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Inter Miami CF or draw
50%
Over 3.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Inter Miami CF fixtures & form →Columbus Crew fixtures & form →

Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Inter Miami and Columbus Crew — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Inter Miami 46% · draw 28% · Columbus Crew 26%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Inter Miami predictions & form →Columbus Crew predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Inter Miami CF 2–2 Columbus Crew
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.