FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–2 Columbus CrewMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 46%, draw at 28%, Columbus Crew at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Inter Miami CF to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
46%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Crew win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.80 – 1.34
Total 3.14
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 78% confidence is the play here—Miami's 0.47 xG edge and Messi's creative dominance (35% of team output) makes a multi-goal affair the likeliest script."