Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Guilherme Augusto and Preston Judd both getting shots away.
Houston Dynamo FC v San Jose Earthquakes prediction
Our model only just leans towards Houston Dynamo FC here: 37% to win, with San Jose Earthquakes on 36% and the draw on 26%. Our predicted score is Houston Dynamo FC 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes: the most likely score if Houston Dynamo FC win, at 8%. We expect 2.9 goals in total: 1.5 for Houston Dynamo FC and 1.4 for San Jose Earthquakes. Both sides are more likely than not to score (59%) and three or more goals is 56%.
In their last six games Houston Dynamo FC have one win, three draws and two defeats, while San Jose Earthquakes have one win, three draws and two defeats. Both lost their most recent match. Of their last five meetings on our records, Houston Dynamo FC have won one, San Jose Earthquakes two, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo FC, in Sept 2026.
We expect Houston Dynamo FC to have 14.9 shots (5.0 on target) and San Jose Earthquakes 12.5 (4.3 on target), and corners at 5.5 to 4.4. Bawler's pick for this game is Both Teams to Score, Over 22.5 Total Shots, Guilherme Augusto 1+ Shot and Preston Judd 1+ Shot. Our model gives all four landing together a 47% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.11).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Houston Dynamo FC · last 6
San Jose Earthquakes · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Houston Dynamo FC or draw is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Bawler's model rates this match: Houston Dynamo FC are favoured (37% win probability vs 36% for San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Bawler's predicted score is Houston Dynamo FC 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes: the most likely score if Houston Dynamo FC win, which is the likeliest result (37%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.3%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Houston Dynamo FC 37%, the draw 26% and San Jose Earthquakes 36%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Houston Dynamo FC expecting 1.47 goals and San Jose Earthquakes 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the Houston Dynamo FC v San Jose Earthquakes line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Houston Dynamo FC v San Jose Earthquakes?
Both Teams to Score (59%), Over 22.5 Total Shots (80%), Guilherme Augusto 1+ Shot (90%), Preston Judd 1+ Shot (89%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 47% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.11). 18+, please gamble responsibly.