Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelCeltic on top, with Camilo Durán our likeliest to test the keeper.
Heart of Midlothian v Celtic prediction
Our model gives Heart of Midlothian 27%, the draw 24% and Celtic 48%, so Celtic start as favourites. Our predicted score is Heart of Midlothian 1–2 Celtic: the most likely score if Celtic win, at 9%. Heart of Midlothian are expected to score 1.3 goals and Celtic 1.8, 3.1 between them. Both teams scoring is 62% and three or more goals is 61%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Heart of Midlothian and Celtic have two wins each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Celtic 7–1 Heart of Midlothian, in Oct 2026. On shots, our forecast is 14.5 for Heart of Midlothian and 13.3 for Celtic, with 4.9 and 4.6 on target, and corners at 5.0 to 5.7.
Of the players, Cláudio Braga of Heart of Midlothian tops our shots forecast at 2.7, if they start. Camilo Durán (Celtic) leads for shots on target, at 1.3. For cards, Sabah Kerjota (Heart of Midlothian) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Heart of Midlothian have one win, one draw and four defeats, while Celtic have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Heart of Midlothian lost their most recent match and Celtic won theirs. Bawler's pick combines Celtic or Draw, Celtic Over 9.5 Shots and Camilo Durán 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 45%, a fair price of 6/5 (2.21).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Heart of Midlothian · last 6
Celtic · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Celtic or draw is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic?
Bawler's model rates this match: Celtic are favoured (48% win probability vs 27% for Heart of Midlothian, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic?
Bawler's predicted score is Heart of Midlothian 1-2 Celtic: the most likely score if Celtic win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.3%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Heart of Midlothian 27%, the draw 24% and Celtic 48%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on Heart of Midlothian expecting 1.33 goals and Celtic 1.82.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Heart of Midlothian v Celtic line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Heart of Midlothian v Celtic?
Celtic or Draw (73%), Celtic Over 9.5 Shots (79%), Camilo Durán 1+ Shot on Target (69%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.21). 18+, please gamble responsibly.