Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelHeart of Midlothian on top, and Cláudio Braga getting plenty of shots away.
Dundee v Heart of Midlothian prediction
Our model makes Heart of Midlothian favourites for this Scottish Premiership game, giving them a 46% chance of winning. Dundee are 29% and the draw is 25%. Our predicted score is Dundee 1–2 Heart of Midlothian: the most likely score if Heart of Midlothian win, at 9%. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Dundee and 1.7 for Heart of Midlothian, 3.0 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (59%) and three or more goals is 57%.
Dundee come in with three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six. Heart of Midlothian have one win, one draw and four defeats over the same run. We expect Dundee to have 10.8 shots (3.7 on target) and Heart of Midlothian 18.6 (5.0 on target), and corners at 3.9 to 6.3. That points to Heart of Midlothian doing more of the attacking.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Dundee have won one, Heart of Midlothian four. The last meeting ended Heart of Midlothian 2–1 Dundee FC, in Sept 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Heart of Midlothian or Draw, Heart of Midlothian Over 14.5 Shots and Cláudio Braga 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 47% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.12).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Dundee · last 6
Heart of Midlothian · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Heart of Midlothian or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?
Bawler's model rates this match: Heart of Midlothian are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Dundee, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?
Bawler's predicted score is Dundee 1-2 Heart of Midlothian: the most likely score if Heart of Midlothian win, which is the likeliest result (46%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Dundee 29%, the draw 25% and Heart of Midlothian 46%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Dundee expecting 1.28 goals and Heart of Midlothian 1.67.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the Dundee v Heart of Midlothian line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Dundee v Heart of Midlothian?
Heart of Midlothian or Draw (71%), Heart of Midlothian Over 14.5 Shots (77%), Cláudio Braga 2+ Shots (79%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 47% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.12). 18+, please gamble responsibly.