Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelCeltic on top: Camilo Durán to test the keeper, and Ryan Carr kept busy stopping them.
Celtic v St Mirren prediction
Our model gives Celtic a 78% chance of winning this Scottish Premiership game. A St Mirren win is 7% and a draw 15%. Our predicted score is Celtic 2–0 St Mirren, at 12%. Celtic are expected to score 2.6 goals and St Mirren 0.7, 3.3 between them. Both teams scoring is only 47% and three or more goals is 65%.
On shots, our forecast is 19.3 for Celtic and 8.8 for St Mirren, with 6.0 and 2.7 on target, and corners at 9.4 to 3.4. So we expect Celtic to do more of the shooting. Camilo Durán is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.4 shots and 1.4 on target for Celtic, if they start. For cards, Ryan Carr (St Mirren) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Celtic have won four, St Mirren one. When they last met, it finished St. Mirren 1–2 Celtic, in Sept 2026. On form, Celtic have three wins, one draw and two defeats from their last six games, and St Mirren have one win, one draw and four defeats. Bawler's pick combines Celtic or Draw, Ryan Carr 1+ Foul Committed and Camilo Durán 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 54%, a fair price of 5/6 (1.84).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Celtic · last 6
St Mirren · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Celtic to win is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Celtic vs St Mirren?
Bawler's model rates this match: Celtic are favoured (78% win probability vs 7% for St Mirren, 15% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Celtic vs St Mirren?
Bawler's predicted score is Celtic 2-0 St Mirren: the most likely score if Celtic win, which is the likeliest result (78%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.2%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Celtic vs St Mirren?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Celtic 78%, the draw 15% and St Mirren 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Celtic vs St Mirren?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Celtic expecting 2.62 goals and St Mirren 0.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Celtic vs St Mirren?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Celtic v St Mirren line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Celtic v St Mirren?
Celtic or Draw (93%), Ryan Carr 1+ Foul Committed (75%), Camilo Durán 1+ Shot on Target (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.84). 18+, please gamble responsibly.