Match prediction·EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Benfica

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.9% home32.7% draw26.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Heart of MidlothianstepBenfica
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Hearts average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). Benfica average 6.8 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Benfica or draw
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Heart of Midlothian fixtures & form →Benfica fixtures & form →

Hearts vs Benfica — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Hearts have won 0, Benfica have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Benfica 6–1 HeartsEurope: Europa League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Hearts 41% · draw 33% · Benfica 26%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Hearts predictions & form →Benfica predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.