Pre-match, Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 40%, draw at 27%, Rapid Vienna at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Heart of Midlothian to win.
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.