What we expect · full match
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
VfB Stuttgart should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Hamburg SV, and they have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
VfB Stuttgart or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Hamburg SV · last 6
VfB Stuttgart · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler's model rates this match: VfB Stuttgart are favoured (55% win probability vs 23% for Hamburg SV, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Hamburg SV 1-2 VfB Stuttgart (9.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Hamburg SV 23%, the draw 21% and VfB Stuttgart 55%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on Hamburg SV expecting 1.40 goals and VfB Stuttgart 2.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 70%.