Go Ahead Eagles and FC Groningen drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured FC Groningen at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. Go Ahead Eagles had 24 shots (6 on target) to FC Groningen's 4 (2), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.2 to 0.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Go Ahead Eagles and FC Groningen drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured FC Groningen at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. Go Ahead Eagles had 24 shots (6 on target) to FC Groningen's 4 (2), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.2 to 0.2.
Go Ahead Eagles 1–1 FC Groningen, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Go Ahead Eagles 34%, the draw 24% and FC Groningen 42%.
Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 2.2–0.2, Shots 24–4, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 18–2, Big chances 5–0, Corners 9–0, Saves 1–5, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 1–0.
Yes — both Go Ahead Eagles and FC Groningen scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Groningen or draw 66%, it finished Draw (24% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.