FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 23 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven 5–1 FC GroningenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 63%, draw at 19%, FC Groningen at 17%. The match ended 5-1 — confirming the model's lean toward PSV Eindhoven.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eindhoven win
63%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Groningen win
17%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.41 – 1.21
Total 3.62
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 63%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost