FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 23 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven 5–1 FC GroningenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven to win at 63%. Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 63%, the draw at 19% and FC Groningen at 17%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
PSV Eindhoven win
63%
Result
Draw
19%
FC Groningen win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.2
Total 3.6
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.4 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
PSV Eindhoven to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.