FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Friday, 28 August 2026
FC Groningen 2–3 Fortuna SittardMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Groningen to win at 60%. Bawler had FC Groningen at 60%, the draw at 21% and Fortuna Sittard at 19%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Groningen win
60%
Draw
21%
Fortuna Sittard win
19%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.2
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.