Match prediction·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 23:00 UTC

Ghana vs Panama

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% with Ghana's creator Kudus generating 24% of team xG and Panama's Godoy prone to disruption—both sides' attacking thrust ensures the 2.41 combined xG ceiling breaks the threshold.

📊 Win probability
39.0% home33.7% draw27.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
GhanastepPanama
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.08
🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
5
2
1
1
12
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Panama or draw
53%
Panama to win
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Antoine Semenyo
Ghana · Bournemouth
38%
To score
Iñaki Williams
Ghana · Athletic Bilbao
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Ghana vs Panama — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ghana and Panama — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ghana 39% · draw 34% · Panama 27%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Ghana 10 Panama
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.