Match prediction·World: World Cup·Sunday 14 Jun, 17:00 UTC

Germany vs Curacao

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% because Germany's 1.84 xG dominance versus Curacao's 0.99 creates the attacking asymmetry needed for multiple tallies.

📊 Win probability
54.3% home27.9% draw17.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
GermanystepCuracao
1.71Base xG · rolling 26-match1.03
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.84Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.99
🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Curacao or draw
48%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Florian Wirtz
Germany · Liverpool
42%
To score
Jamal Musiala
Germany · Bayern Munich
40%
To score
Kai Havertz
Germany · Arsenal
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Germany vs Curacao — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Germany and Curacao — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Germany 54% · draw 28% · Curacao 18%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Germany 71 Curacao
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.