Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelFrance on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
France v Türkiye prediction
France go into this UEFA Nations League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 84% to win, against 5% for Türkiye and 11% for a draw. Our predicted score is France 2–0 Türkiye, at 12%. France are expected to score 2.9 goals and Türkiye 0.6, 3.6 between them. There is a 43% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 69%.
France come in with three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six. Türkiye have one win, no draws and five defeats over the same run. We expect France to have 22.3 shots (9.4 on target) and Türkiye 9.6 (2.4 on target), and corners at 7.3 to 3.2. That points to France doing more of the attacking.
Of their last three meetings on our records, France and Türkiye have one win each, with one draw. The last meeting ended Turkiye 0–1 France, in Sept 2026. Bawler's pick combines France or Draw, France Over 16.5 Shots, France Over 6.5 Shots on Target and France Over 4.5 Corners. We make the chance of all four coming in 51%, a fair price of Evens (1.96).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
France · last 6
Türkiye · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
France to win is 84% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win France vs Türkiye?
Bawler's model rates this match: France are favoured (84% win probability vs 5% for Türkiye, 11% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for France vs Türkiye?
Bawler's predicted score is France 2-0 Türkiye: the most likely score if France win, which is the likeliest result (84%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.4%. Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict France vs Türkiye?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives France 84%, the draw 11% and Türkiye 5%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in France vs Türkiye?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 43% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on France expecting 2.95 goals and Türkiye 0.60.
Over or under 2.5 goals in France vs Türkiye?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 69%.
When are the France v Türkiye line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for France v Türkiye?
France or Draw (95%), France Over 16.5 Shots (79%), France Over 6.5 Shots on Target (78%), France Over 4.5 Corners (78%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.96). 18+, please gamble responsibly.