FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Belgium 3–0 TürkiyeMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Belgium
3–0
Belgium win
Türkiye

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Belgium to win at 79%. Bawler had Belgium at 79%, the draw at 14% and Türkiye at 7%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Belgium win
79%
Result
Draw
14%
Türkiye win
7%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.7 – 0.7
Total 3.5
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Belgium to win
Pre-match: 79%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Belgium's home advantage and 1.81 expected-goal edge over Türkiye (2.52 vs 0.71 xG) underpin the Home Win forecast at 76% probability."

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