FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 12 November 2026

Italy 3–1 FranceMatch recap · Thursday, 12 November 2026

Italy
3–1
Italy win
France

Pre-match probability vs result

Italy win
20%
Result
Draw
24%
France win
57%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.5
From the match itself

The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

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