FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 05 October 2026

Italy 3–1 TürkiyeMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Italy
3–1
Italy win
Türkiye

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Italy to win at 61%. Bawler had Italy at 61%, the draw at 22% and Türkiye at 17%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Italy win
61%
Result
Draw
22%
Türkiye win
17%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Italy to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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