What we expect
In plain English
FC Twente are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Fortuna Sittard, and Fortuna Sittard have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
FC Twente to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Twente are favoured (63% win probability vs 16% for Fortuna Sittard, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Fortuna Sittard 1-2 FC Twente (9.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.26.
How does Bawler predict Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Fortuna Sittard 16%, the draw 21% and FC Twente 63%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.05 and away expected goals 2.22.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.26. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).