FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
FC Twente 1–0 FC ThunMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente to win at 67%. Bawler had FC Twente at 67%, the draw at 20% and FC Thun at 13%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Twente win
67%
Result
Draw
20%
FC Thun win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.9
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Twente to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.