Match prediction·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Saturday 22 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
42.0% home28.7% draw29.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Fortuna SittardstepAZ Alkmaar
1.72Base xG · rolling 26-match1.42
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.72Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.42

Sittard average 4.9 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). AZ Alkmaar average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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6
0
4
6
4
2
1
1
7
11
7
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
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4
2
1
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2
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Fortuna Sittard fixtures & form →AZ Alkmaar fixtures & form →

Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sittard and AZ Alkmaar — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sittard 42% · draw 29% · AZ Alkmaar 29%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Sittard predictions & form →AZ Alkmaar predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.