Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFeyenoord Rotterdam on top, with Nacho Ferri our likeliest to test the keeper.
Feyenoord Rotterdam v Ajax Amsterdam prediction
Our model gives Feyenoord Rotterdam 49%, the draw 23% and Ajax Amsterdam 27%, so Feyenoord Rotterdam start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–1 Ajax Amsterdam, the most likely Feyenoord Rotterdam win (9%). Feyenoord Rotterdam are expected to score 1.9 goals and Ajax Amsterdam 1.4, 3.4 between them. Both teams scoring is 65% and three or more goals is 65%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Feyenoord Rotterdam have won one, Ajax Amsterdam three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Feyenoord 1–1 Ajax, in Mar 2026. Nacho Ferri is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.6 shots and 1.2 on target for Feyenoord Rotterdam, if they start. For cards, Lucas Rosa (Ajax Amsterdam) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 17.9 for Feyenoord Rotterdam and 12.7 for Ajax Amsterdam, with 6.8 and 4.4 on target, and corners at 6.6 to 3.8. So we expect Feyenoord Rotterdam to do more of the shooting. Feyenoord Rotterdam come in with one win, two draws and three defeats in their last six. Ajax Amsterdam have five wins, one draw and no defeats over the same run. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Feyenoord Rotterdam or Draw, Feyenoord Rotterdam Over 13.5 Shots and Nacho Ferri 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 44% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/4, or 2.30.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Feyenoord Rotterdam · last 6
Ajax Amsterdam · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Bawler's model rates this match: Feyenoord Rotterdam are favoured (49% win probability vs 27% for Ajax Amsterdam, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Bawler's predicted score is Feyenoord Rotterdam 2-1 Ajax Amsterdam: the most likely score if Feyenoord Rotterdam win, which is the likeliest result (49%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Feyenoord Rotterdam 49%, the draw 23% and Ajax Amsterdam 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 65% chance. That is based on Feyenoord Rotterdam expecting 1.95 goals and Ajax Amsterdam 1.41.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Feyenoord Rotterdam v Ajax Amsterdam line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Feyenoord Rotterdam v Ajax Amsterdam?
Feyenoord Rotterdam or Draw (73%), Feyenoord Rotterdam Over 13.5 Shots (79%), Nacho Ferri 1+ Shot on Target (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 44% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.30). 18+, please gamble responsibly.