Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAjax Amsterdam on top, with Tolu Arokodare our likeliest to test the keeper.
Ajax Amsterdam v FC Thun prediction
Our model gives Ajax Amsterdam a 73% chance of winning this Conference League game. A FC Thun win is 10% and a draw 17%. Our predicted score is Ajax Amsterdam 2–0 FC Thun, at 11%. We expect 3.4 goals in total: 2.5 for Ajax Amsterdam and 0.9 for FC Thun. Both teams scoring is 53% and three or more goals is 66%.
On shots, our forecast is 24.4 for Ajax Amsterdam and 10.8 for FC Thun, with 7.2 and 4.4 on target, and corners at 6.9 to 3.2. So we expect Ajax Amsterdam to do more of the shooting. In their last six games Ajax Amsterdam have five wins, one draw and no defeats, while FC Thun have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Both drew their most recent match.
Tolu Arokodare is the player we expect to shoot most: 4.3 shots and 1.2 on target for Ajax Amsterdam, if they start. For cards, Lucas Rosa (Ajax Amsterdam) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Ajax Amsterdam or Draw, Ajax Amsterdam Over 19.5 Shots and Tolu Arokodare 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 54% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/6, or 1.86.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Ajax Amsterdam · last 6
FC Thun · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Ajax Amsterdam to win is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Thun?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ajax Amsterdam are favoured (73% win probability vs 10% for FC Thun, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Thun?
Bawler's predicted score is Ajax Amsterdam 2-0 FC Thun: the most likely score if Ajax Amsterdam win, which is the likeliest result (73%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.8%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Thun?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Ajax Amsterdam 73%, the draw 17% and FC Thun 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Thun?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Ajax Amsterdam expecting 2.53 goals and FC Thun 0.86.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Thun?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.
When are the Ajax Amsterdam v FC Thun line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Ajax Amsterdam v FC Thun?
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw (90%), Ajax Amsterdam Over 19.5 Shots (78%), Tolu Arokodare 1+ Shot on Target (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.86). 18+, please gamble responsibly.