Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAjax Amsterdam on top: Oscar Gloukh to test the keeper, and Yannick Eduardo kept busy stopping them.
Ajax Amsterdam v ADO Den Haag prediction
Our model makes Ajax Amsterdam clear favourites for this Eredivisie game, with a 72% chance of winning. ADO Den Haag are given 11%, and the draw 17%. Our predicted score is Ajax Amsterdam 2–0 ADO Den Haag, at 9%. We expect 3.6 goals in total: 2.6 for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.0 for ADO Den Haag. Both sides are more likely than not to score (58%) and three or more goals is 69%.
In their last six games Ajax Amsterdam have five wins, no draws and one defeat, while ADO Den Haag have one win, two draws and three defeats. Ajax Amsterdam won their most recent match and ADO Den Haag lost theirs. We expect Ajax Amsterdam to have 24.9 shots (7.0 on target) and ADO Den Haag 9.9 (3.3 on target), and corners at 8.1 to 2.9. That points to Ajax Amsterdam doing more of the attacking.
Sékou Sylla of ADO Den Haag is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Of their last five meetings on our records, Ajax Amsterdam have won five, ADO Den Haag none. The last meeting ended Ajax 5–0 ADO Den Haag, in Mar 2021. Bawler's pick for this game is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw, Yannick Eduardo 1+ Foul Committed and Oscar Gloukh 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 49% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (2.02).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Ajax Amsterdam · last 6
ADO Den Haag · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Ajax Amsterdam to win is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ajax Amsterdam are favoured (72% win probability vs 11% for ADO Den Haag, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?
Bawler's predicted score is Ajax Amsterdam 2-0 ADO Den Haag: the most likely score if Ajax Amsterdam win, which is the likeliest result (72%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Ajax Amsterdam 72%, the draw 17% and ADO Den Haag 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Ajax Amsterdam expecting 2.59 goals and ADO Den Haag 0.97.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 69%.
When are the Ajax Amsterdam v ADO Den Haag line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Ajax Amsterdam v ADO Den Haag?
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw (89%), Yannick Eduardo 1+ Foul Committed (75%), Oscar Gloukh 1+ Shot on Target (68%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.02). 18+, please gamble responsibly.