Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFeyenoord Rotterdam on top: Nacho Ferri to test the keeper, and Noah Naujoks kept busy stopping them.
Feyenoord Rotterdam v Excelsior prediction
Our model gives Feyenoord Rotterdam a 74% chance of winning this Eredivisie game. A Excelsior win is 10% and a draw 16%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–0 Excelsior, at 10%. Our expected goals are 2.7 for Feyenoord Rotterdam and 0.9 for Excelsior, 3.6 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (56%) and three or more goals is 69%.
We expect Feyenoord Rotterdam to have 21.5 shots (6.9 on target) and Excelsior 9.3 (3.6 on target), and corners at 8.3 to 2.6. That points to Feyenoord Rotterdam doing more of the attacking. Of the players, Nacho Ferri (Feyenoord Rotterdam) tops both our lists, with 3.0 shots and 1.2 on target expected if they start. Bart Nieuwkoop of Feyenoord Rotterdam is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26.
Feyenoord Rotterdam come in with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last six. Excelsior have one win, one draw and four defeats over the same run. Of their last five meetings on our records, Feyenoord Rotterdam have won five, Excelsior none. The last meeting ended Feyenoord 2–1 Excelsior, in Mar 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Feyenoord Rotterdam or Draw, Noah Naujoks 1+ Foul Committed and Nacho Ferri 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 2.04.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Feyenoord Rotterdam · last 6
Excelsior · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model rates this match: Feyenoord Rotterdam are favoured (74% win probability vs 10% for Excelsior, 16% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Bawler's predicted score is Feyenoord Rotterdam 2-0 Excelsior: the most likely score if Feyenoord Rotterdam win, which is the likeliest result (74%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.9%. Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Feyenoord Rotterdam 74%, the draw 16% and Excelsior 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Feyenoord Rotterdam expecting 2.66 goals and Excelsior 0.91.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 69%.
When are the Feyenoord Rotterdam v Excelsior line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Feyenoord Rotterdam v Excelsior?
Feyenoord Rotterdam or Draw (90%), Noah Naujoks 1+ Foul Committed (75%), Nacho Ferri 1+ Shot on Target (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.04). 18+, please gamble responsibly.