Dundee beat Falkirk 2–1. Falkirk had 16 shots (5 on target) to Dundee's 23 (10), with 55% of the ball against 45%. On expected goals it was 2.1 to 1.5, so Falkirk created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Dundee beat Falkirk 2–1. Falkirk had 16 shots (5 on target) to Dundee's 23 (10), with 55% of the ball against 45%. On expected goals it was 2.1 to 1.5, so Falkirk created the better chances and still lost the game.
Falkirk 1–2 Dundee, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Scotland: Scottish Prem. Bawler's model had gone into it with Falkirk 51%, the draw 26% and Dundee 24%.
Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–1.5, Shots 16–23, Shots on target 5–10, Shots inside box 11–17, Big chances 1–2, Corners 3–10, Saves 8–4, Fouls 12–11, Offsides 1–1.
Yes — both Falkirk and Dundee scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.