FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Falkirk 1–2 DundeeMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Falkirk or draw at 76%. Bawler had Falkirk at 51%, the draw at 26% and Dundee at 24%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Falkirk win
51%
Draw
26%
Dundee win
24%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Falkirk or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.