FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 24 October 2026
St Mirren 2–1 DundeeMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St Mirren or draw at 71%. Bawler had St Mirren at 43%, the draw at 27% and Dundee at 29%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
St Mirren win
43%
Result
Draw
27%
Dundee win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because St Mirren's 1.47 expected goals at home outpaces Dundee's modest 1.17 away threat, tilting this narrow xG gap toward a multi-goal outcome."