FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Dundee 2–1 MotherwellMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Dundee at 28%, draw at 26%, Motherwell at 46%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Motherwell to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dundee win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Motherwell win
46%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.20 – 1.61
Total 2.81
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 75%, backed by Motherwell's 0.46 xG advantage and a combined 2.71 expected goals that tilts toward an open contest."