FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
St Johnstone 1–1 FalkirkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St Johnstone at 40%, draw at 27%, Falkirk at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was St Johnstone to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Johnstone win
40%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Falkirk win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.26
Total 2.69
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% after both sides generated nearly identical expected goals (St Johnstone 1.39, Falkirk 1.43), signaling a low-variance attacking balance favors multiple goals."