FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Falkirk 3–0 KilmarnockMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Falkirk or draw at 77%. Bawler had Falkirk at 53%, the draw at 24% and Kilmarnock at 23%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Falkirk win
53%
Result
Draw
24%
Kilmarnock win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Falkirk to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, backed by Falkirk's 1.88 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 3.06 that favours an open contest."