How it finished
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0. Estonia had 14 shots (9 on target) to Luxembourg's 8 (2), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.5.
What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
What we said the chances were
First half — what we expected
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Head to head
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who won Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0. Estonia had 14 shots (9 on target) to Luxembourg's 8 (2), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.5.
What was the final score in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Estonia 37%, the draw 30% and Luxembourg 33%.
What were the stats in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.5, Shots 14–8, Shots on target 9–2, Shots inside box 10–4, Big chances 2–0, Corners 7–3, Saves 2–8, Fouls 13–12, Offsides 4–2, Yellow cards 3–6.
Did both teams score in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
No. It finished 1–0, so Luxembourg failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 46% before kickoff.