BAWLER
← Tonight's board

Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 17:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 17:00 UK
44Estonia win28Draw27Bulgaria win
The call
73%
Estonia or draw
Calls like this land 67% of the time
152 of 227 settledFull record →
14d 15hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
1–1
13% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.4v1.1
2.5 in total
Both teams score
50%
Coin flip
3+ goals
45%
Leans unlikely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

EstoniaEstoniaBulgariaBulgaria
1.4Goals1.1
usually 0.7usually 0.8
12.3Shots11.9
usually 10.7usually 10.3
5.4On target3.2
usually 4.3usually 3.7
5.3Corners4.1
usually 3.7usually 3.7
EstoniaEstoniaBulgariaBulgaria
0.6Goals0.5
5.6Shots5.4
usually 5.2usually 5.2
2.4On target1.4
usually 1.3usually 2.7
2.5Corners1.9
usually 2.2usually 1.3
EstoniaEstoniaBulgariaBulgaria
0.8Goals0.6
6.7Shots6.5
2.9On target1.7
2.8Corners2.2

More chances

Estonia to score76%
3 goals or fewer76%
2 or more goals71%
Goal before half-time67%
Bulgaria to score66%

Estonia · last 6

Dv Iceland0–013 shots
Wv Luxembourg1–014 shots
Dat Bulgaria0–06 shots
Dat Iceland1–18 shots
Wv Lithuania1–006/09
Wv Faroe Islands1–006/06

Bulgaria · last 6

Wat Luxembourg2–013 shots
Lat Iceland0–310 shots
Dv Estonia0–017 shots
Lv Luxembourg1–210 shots
Dat Moldova2–206/05
Lv Montenegro0–106/01

Head to head

Sept 2026Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia
Feb 2011Bulgaria 2–2 Estonia

First half — what we expect

Estonia
47%
to score before half-time
Bulgaria
38%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

EstoniaEstoniaBulgariaBulgaria
60%5+ shots58%
34%7+ shots32%
88%1+ shots on target71%
42%3+ shots on target19%
88%1+ corners80%
43%3+ corners30%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Estonia or draw is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Estonia lead 1–0 at half-time95%
Bulgaria lead 1–0 at half-time36%
Goalless at half-time77%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Estonia form →Bulgaria form →

Common questions

Who will win Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Bawler's model rates this match: Estonia are favoured (44% win probability vs 27% for Bulgaria, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Bulgaria?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Estonia 1-1 Bulgaria (13.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.5.

How does Bawler predict Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Estonia 44%, the draw 28% and Bulgaria 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Estonia expecting 1.43 goals and Bulgaria 1.07.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 45%.