What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Iceland · last 6
Luxembourg · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Iceland to win is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Bawler's model rates this match: Iceland are favoured (72% win probability vs 9% for Luxembourg, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Luxembourg?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Iceland 2-0 Luxembourg (14.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Iceland 72%, the draw 19% and Luxembourg 9%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 40% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Iceland expecting 2.13 goals and Luxembourg 0.61.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 52%.