Betting picks · 18+·World: World Cup·Wednesday 15 Jul, 19:00 UTC

England vs Argentina — picks

Bawler's locked selections for this fixture, each with the model's probability and the price it implies. Picks lock before kickoff and are never edited afterwards — that's what makes the track record mean anything. For the model's reasoning without any betting content, see the match prediction.

BANKER
Over 1.5 goals
Model 69.4% · @ 1.44
VALUE
Under 2.5 goals
Model 53.9% · @ 1.85
DARK HORSE
Over 3.5 goals
Model 21.1% · @ 4.75
BAWL OUT
23+ shots in the match + Over 1.5 goals + England or draw + Lautaro Martínez 1+ Shot on Target
Model 24.2% · @ 4.14x

Star picks · player props

top 3
Anytime Scorer
Harry Kane
England · Bayern Munich
60%@ 1.67x fair
Anytime Scorer
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%@ 1.92x fair
Anytime Scorer
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%@ 2.00x fair
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Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+ · Please gamble responsibly