Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAtlético Madrid on top, and Julián Álvarez getting plenty of shots away.
Elche v Atlético Madrid prediction
Atlético Madrid are favourites on our numbers: 49% to win, against 26% for Elche and 25% for a draw. Our predicted score is Elche 1–2 Atlético Madrid: the most likely score if Atlético Madrid win, at 9%. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Elche and 1.7 for Atlético Madrid, 2.9 in all. Both teams scoring is 57% and three or more goals is 55%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Elche and Atlético Madrid have two wins each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Elche 3–2 Atlético Madrid, in Apr 2026. On shots, our forecast is 13.2 for Elche and 14.5 for Atlético Madrid, with 4.5 and 5.0 on target, and corners at 4.5 to 5.1.
Of the players, Lucas Cepeda of Elche tops our shots forecast at 2.9, if they start. Julián Álvarez (Atlético Madrid) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Federico Redondo (Elche) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Elche have two wins, two draws and two defeats, while Atlético Madrid have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Both lost their most recent match. Bawler's pick combines Atlético Madrid or Draw, Atlético Madrid Over 10.5 Shots and Julián Álvarez 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 45%, a fair price of 6/5 (2.21).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Elche · last 6
Atlético Madrid · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Atlético Madrid or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Elche vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's model rates this match: Atlético Madrid are favoured (49% win probability vs 26% for Elche, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Elche vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's predicted score is Elche 1-2 Atlético Madrid: the most likely score if Atlético Madrid win, which is the likeliest result (49%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Elche vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Elche 26%, the draw 25% and Atlético Madrid 49%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Atlético Madrid?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Elche expecting 1.19 goals and Atlético Madrid 1.70.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Elche vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Elche v Atlético Madrid line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Elche v Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid or Draw (74%), Atlético Madrid Over 10.5 Shots (79%), Julián Álvarez 2+ Shots (70%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.21). 18+, please gamble responsibly.