What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 77%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
FC Midtjylland are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They are unbeaten in their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Egnatia. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
FC Midtjylland to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Egnatia vs FC Midtjylland?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Midtjylland are favoured (69% win probability vs 12% for Egnatia, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Egnatia vs FC Midtjylland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Egnatia 0-2 FC Midtjylland (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.30.
How does Bawler predict Egnatia vs FC Midtjylland?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Egnatia 12%, the draw 19% and FC Midtjylland 69%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Egnatia vs FC Midtjylland?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.93 and away expected goals 2.37.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Egnatia vs FC Midtjylland?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.30. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).