FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 05 November 2026
FC Midtjylland 1–6 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap · Thursday, 05 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickLost
FC Midtjylland or Draw✗
FC Midtjylland Over 12.5 Shots✗
FC Midtjylland Over 3.5 Shots on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Midtjylland win
53%
Draw
24%
Ajax Amsterdam win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 6
Total 7 (+4.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 3.5
From the match itself
The match produced 4.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.