FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Egnatia 1–1 FC MidtjyllandMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Midtjylland to win at 69%. Bawler had Egnatia at 12%, the draw at 18% and FC Midtjylland at 69%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Egnatia win
12%
Draw
18%
Result
FC Midtjylland win
69%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 2.4
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Midtjylland to win
Pre-match: 69%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.