Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelDerby County on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Derby County v Watford prediction
Our model gives Derby County 43%, the draw 27% and Watford 30%, so Derby County start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Derby County 1–0 Watford, the most likely Derby County win (10%). Our expected goals are 1.5 for Derby County and 1.2 for Watford, 2.7 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (54%) and three or more goals is 50%.
In their last six games Derby County have one win, one draw and four defeats, while Watford have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Derby County won their most recent match and Watford drew theirs. We expect Derby County to have 13.9 shots (4.7 on target) and Watford 12.5 (3.8 on target), and corners at 6.1 to 4.2.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Derby County have won none, Watford five. The last meeting ended Watford 2–0 Derby County, in Feb 2026. Carlton Morris (Derby County) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.3 shots if they start. Myron Boadu (Watford) leads for shots on target, at 1.0. Rhian Brewster of Derby County is the most booked player in either squad, about once a game in 2026/27. Bawler's pick combines Derby County or Draw, Derby County Over 9.5 Shots and Derby County Over 2.5 Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 50%, a fair price of Evens (1.98).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Derby County · last 6
Watford · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Derby County or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Derby County vs Watford?
Bawler's model rates this match: Derby County are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Watford, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Derby County vs Watford?
Bawler's predicted score is Derby County 1-0 Watford: the most likely score if Derby County win, which is the likeliest result (43%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.9%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Derby County vs Watford?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Derby County 43%, the draw 27% and Watford 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs Watford?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Derby County expecting 1.49 goals and Watford 1.21.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Derby County vs Watford?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.
When are the Derby County v Watford line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Derby County v Watford?
Derby County or Draw (70%), Derby County Over 9.5 Shots (82%), Derby County Over 2.5 Shots on Target (81%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.98). 18+, please gamble responsibly.