FT · England: Championship · Friday, 06 November 2026
Derby County 3–1 Bolton WanderersMatch recap · Friday, 06 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Over 20.5 Total Shots✓
Over 6.5 Total Corners✓
Over 4.5 Total Shots on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Derby County win
43%
Result
Draw
25%
Bolton Wanderers win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.