> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Thursday 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Curaçao vs Ivory Coast
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Ivory Coast's Away Win dominates at 83% probability, built on a crushing 2.24 xG advantage led by striker Sébastien Haller's creation of 22% of team chances.
Win probability
3.2% home14.0% draw82.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CuraçaostepIvory Coast
0.44Base xG · rolling 26-match2.67
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.44Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.67
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
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12
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9
5
2
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7
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2
1
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1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals + Under 7.5 SOT + Tahith Chong 1+ Shot
Model 26.3% · @ 3.80x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Curaçao 0–2 Ivory Coast
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+