Match prediction·World: World Cup·Thursday 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Ivory Coast's Away Win dominates at 83% probability, built on a crushing 2.24 xG advantage led by striker Sébastien Haller's creation of 22% of team chances.

📊 Win probability
3.2% home14.0% draw82.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
CuraçaostepIvory Coast
0.44Base xG · rolling 26-match2.67
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.44Final goal estimate — what the model uses2.67

Ivory Coast average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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12
16
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9
5
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Ivory Coast to win
88%
Under 2.5 goals
19%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Curaçao and Ivory Coast — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Curaçao 3% · draw 14% · Ivory Coast 83%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Curaçao 02 Ivory Coast
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.