Match prediction·World: World Cup·Saturday 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC

Croatia vs Ghana

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because Croatia's 1.79 xG dominates Ghana's 1.04, and Kramarić's 22% of team output gives the hosts a sharp scoring edge at home.

📊 Win probability
51.9% home28.6% draw19.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
CroatiastepGhana
1.79Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.79Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.04

Ghana average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Under 2.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Antoine Semenyo
Ghana · Bournemouth
38%
To score
Iñaki Williams
Ghana · Athletic Bilbao
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Croatia vs Ghana — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Croatia and Ghana — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Croatia 52% · draw 29% · Ghana 20%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Croatia 21 Ghana
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.