> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Saturday 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC
Croatia vs Ghana
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because Croatia's 1.79 xG dominates Ghana's 1.04, and KramariΔ's 22% of team output gives the hosts a sharp scoring edge at home.
Win probability
51.9% home28.6% draw19.6% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
CroatiastepGhana
1.79Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.04
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.79Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.04
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Croatia 2β1 Ghana
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+