What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Como vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's model rates this match: Como are favoured (54% win probability vs 23% for RB Leipzig, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Como vs RB Leipzig?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Como 1-1 RB Leipzig (10.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.20.
How does Bawler predict Como vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Como 54%, the draw 23% and RB Leipzig 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Como vs RB Leipzig?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.98 and away expected goals 1.23.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Como vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.20. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).