What we expect
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win China vs New Zealand?
Bawler's model rates this match: New Zealand are favoured (39% win probability vs 35% for China, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for China vs New Zealand?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is China 1-1 New Zealand (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.78.
How does Bawler predict China vs New Zealand?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives China 35%, the draw 27% and New Zealand 39%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in China vs New Zealand?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.34 and away expected goals 1.43.
Over or under 2.5 goals in China vs New Zealand?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.78. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).