Palestine 2–2 New ZealandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 24 September 2026

2–2

Draw

New Zealand

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Palestine at 38%, draw at 27%, New Zealand at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Palestine to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Palestine win

38%

Draw

27%

Actual ✓

Zealand win

35%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.42 – 1.35

Total 2.76

Actual

2 – 2

Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 76%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 52%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 27%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% because Palestine's 1.42 xG and New Zealand's 1.36 xG combine for balanced attacking threat, with Chris Wood accounting for nearly a quarter of the visitors' expected output."

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