FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Panama 1–1 New ZealandMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Panama or draw at 74%. Bawler had Panama at 49%, the draw at 25% and New Zealand at 26%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Panama win
49%
Draw
25%
Result
New Zealand win
26%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Panama's 0.57 expected-goals edge and 79% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals reflect their attacking dominance at home, where creator Bárcenas and New Zealand's Wood's 24% xG share suggest both sides will find the net."

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